The population of the European Union is going to continue to decline gradually from 2026 because there will be fewer births, and immigration will no longer be able to counter the decline in the birth rate. But the differences will be huge between the various regions in Europe, as per a paper released by Bruegel, a Brussels-based economic policy think tank.
Another important shift in the population of Europe is that more elderly individuals will constitute a greater percentage of the population in the future. “35 per cent of the EU will be above 65 by 2050. This is compared to just 21 per cent in 2022, so there really is considerable change on the horizon,” states David Pinkus, Bruegel affiliate fellow and co-author of the report. The most rapidly increasing segment of the population is the over 85s, and that presents certain challenges for social policies like long-term care,” he continues.
David Pinkus and Nina Ruer examined in their paper the two principal determinants of population change in Europe: the contrast between the number of births and deaths (natural change) and the contrast between the number of individuals immigrating to the countries of Europe and the number emigrating from them (immigration and emigration). EU countries were grouped by them into four categories according to their past history of immigration. Western Europe (Austria, Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Ireland) and Northern Europe (Denmark, Sweden and Finland) changed from emigration to immigration areas during the 1950s.
Southern Europe (Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus and Malta), traditionally an emigration area, began to see substantial immigration in the 1990s but saw a new exodus around the 2008 financial crisis. Eastern Europe (Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Croatia, Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria) was sealed off from migration during the Cold War and saw a large emigration wave since the EU accession.
At the regional level, natural change will be negative in all four country groups, and net migration will be positive,” Pinkus said.
Yet, in the east and the south overall population change will remain negative. In the east, this is thanks to high negative natural population change and to comparatively low net migration… while in the south, it’s due to extremely high negative natural population change but very strong positive net migration,” he said.
The population trend in the east particularly is “worrying”, according to the report, because “rapid decline in population will most likely lead to labour shortages and economic stagnation” and this will be accompanied by “brain drain and high outward migration of young and skilled people”. At a national level, the population is expected to increase by 2050 in Austria, Spain, Sweden, Belgium, Cyprus, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Iceland and Norway.
All but Sweden, Ireland, Luxembourg, and Cyprus (and beyond the EU, Norway and Iceland) are likely to experience natural growth in the period 2023-2050, whereas net migration is set to grow in all states except Latvia, Lithuania and Romania. Germany and France will be nearly net zero population growth. The rest of the nations will experience declining populations.
The population of Europe is also ageing. The proportion of individuals aged 85 and over in the EU will increase more than twice from the present 3 per cent to 6 per cent by 2050 and close to 8 per cent by 2070. All member states of the EU will also see “substantial increases” in the proportion of their population aged 65 and over by 2050.
This is a wonderful accomplishment but it also presents challenges since more share of elders to the workforce implies there will be more individuals that will not only require pensions but also long-term care services and fewer individuals who can potentially offer these services,” Pinkus said. Meanwhile, 22 of the 27 EU nations will experience a reduction in their working-age population (20 to 64 years old), the report contends.
The under-20 population will also fall between 2023 and 2050, except in Sweden, Malta and Luxembourg. This might create “imbalances in the labour market”, which might be offset by longer working lives, increased participation of women in the labour force and greater immigration, the report adds.
Domestic, regional inequalities will also increase as rural regions will be “more at risk of depopulation” as a result of “limited economic and job opportunities and insufficient access to basic services like education, childcare and healthcare.
