Macron announced the date to hold the Presidential election in France, June 30 and July. This announcement is a risky move for Macron. According to Macron, holding elections gave him more power to the far-right political groups. Furthermore, he also thinks that he got more votes that strengthen his power in politics. But the results are opposite as compared to his thinking. His plan might not work as he expected.
Why is France holding presidential elections?
For almost 3 years, there is no need to hold elections in France. But the Macron party lost badly to the far-right National Rally. He said in front of the public, that ignoring things is not the solution. He really wants French citizens who aren’t extremists to come together on a single platform along with politicians to form a new coalition. According to Macron it is the best solution to move forward.
Macron viewpoints related to election
It seems Mr Macron had been contemplating calling an election for months. But it was surprising for his colleagues when he finally announced it. France is gearing up for a significant event with the Paris Olympics scheduled from 26 July to 11 August, amidst a sudden and fast-paced election campaign.
Mr Macron’s decision appears aimed at breaking a deadlock following his failure to secure an absolute majority in the National Assembly in June 2022. Passing laws has become increasingly challenging, he recently had to push through pension reforms without a vote and faced difficulties with tougher immigration rules that required National Rally’s support.
According to Macron,“France needs a clear majority if it is to act in serenity and harmony.” However, his actions have left French politics and his own party in disarray.
The centrist Ensemble alliance, made up of Renaissance, Horizons, and MoDem, is doing worse in the polls than a new left-wing group called the New Popular Front. This new group includes Socialists, Greens, Communists, and the far-left France Unbowed (LFI).
According to Horizons leader and ex-Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, “He killed off the presidential majority.”
Furthermore, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire stated, “This decision has created everywhere in our country, in the French people, worry, incomprehension, sometimes anger.”
Importance of these election in France
The results of these elections are crucial. At this time, these elections could prove beneficial for the National Rally to win power for the first time. Even though people warn against extreme views, the party led by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen in parliament is gaining support. Marine Le Pen has tried many times to win the Presidency seat but unfortunately has not succeeded. Even though many people vote for her. Recent polls now highlighted that her party could be the biggest across the nation, though they might not get a full majority. Le Pen is also getting ready for the presidential election in the next 3 years.
How do these elections work?
In order to win the French National Assembly elections, it is important to secure the 289 seats. Macron’s group has secured only 250 seats so he is seeking assistance from other parties to pass laws. In order to qualify in the first round it is important to get 12.5% votes otherwise the candidate is disqualified. To win outright, a candidate needs over 50% of votes with a quarter of voters turning up, which rarely happens. The National Rally hopes to get more votes this time. In the second round, two to four candidates face off. With high turnout expected, many races could have three candidates.
What will happen next?
The two-round system of the election makes the process uncertain and complex. Expert Jérôme Jaffré says many of Macron’s MPs might not make it to the next round or could end up third. The National Rally currently has 88 seats but could win more at the end. And it will be the biggest political increase.
Traditionally, voters use tactical voting to block the far right, but this time it might help the left more than Macron’s group. Some centrists might prefer RN over Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party, changing the political scene a lot.
What if Macron does not win the election?
According to Macron, no matter who wins, he does not leave the presidency.
If Macron’s party losses and National Rally wins then the next question is whether RN secure 289 seats or more than Macron has had since 2022.
