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Executive Summary

The Strasburg Policy Centre, in collaboration with the Sudan Center for Red Sea PeaceUniversidad Autónoma de Madrid, and the Cambridge Middle East and North Africa Forum, has published an exclusive report titled “Sudan’s Internal Conflict and Its Migration Impact on Europe.” This report addresses the complex and wide-reaching consequences of Sudan’s ongoing conflict, emphasizing both the humanitarian crisis within Sudan and its direct impact on migration patterns, particularly toward Europe.
The report consists of three main chapters, each contributed by experts with diverse backgrounds, providing a comprehensive analysis of the conflict’s multifaceted repercussions.

Chapter 1: The Human Cost of Conflict: Mapping Sudan’s Humanitarian Challenges by Joseph Hammond

The first chapter, authored by Joseph Hammond, an experienced journalist and consultant in conflict reporting, delves into the profound humanitarian crisis caused by the internal conflict in Sudan. Since the eruption of violence on April 15, 2023, the country has witnessed a severe deterioration in living conditions, with a death toll reaching nearly 17,000 and the looming threat of famine affecting millions more. Hammond’s chapter focuses on how this humanitarian disaster is unfolding, with widespread famine, displacement, and disease, including cholera and malaria, affecting vast swaths of the population.
The humanitarian crisis is further exacerbated by the mass displacement of people within Sudan. Hammond highlights that over 10 million people are now internally displaced, with another 2.2 million seeking refuge in neighboring countries. These displacements, alongside economic instability and currency devaluation, have compounded the suffering, leading to one of the worst humanitarian crises globally. Hammond also draws parallels between the Sudanese conflict and other global conflicts, stressing that the situation in Sudan could become the costliest humanitarian disaster on the planet if not addressed promptly.

Chapter 2: War in Sudan and Migration in Europe by Dr. Rossen Koroutchev

Dr. Rossen Koroutchev, a researcher at Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, focuses on the migratory impact of the conflict, particularly on Europe, in the second chapter. Koroutchev’s analysis sheds light on how the ongoing war has intensified migration flows toward Europe, with thousands of Sudanese fleeing the conflict zones in search of safety. The chapter meticulously details the key migration routes, noting how Sudanese refugees are crossing into neighboring countries like Egypt, Chad, and South Sudan, with some eventually making perilous journeys toward Europe via the Mediterranean.
Dr. Koroutchev also examines the role of regional and international migration governance, including the European Union’s (EU) strategies to curb irregular migration. The EU has been working to prevent large-scale migration from Africa, but the report critiques the EU’s approach as shortsighted, especially its reliance on border externalization policies that shift the burden of migration management to African countries, such as Sudan. Koroutchev argues that these policies often exacerbate the suffering of refugees, leaving them vulnerable to human traffickers and forced to take increasingly dangerous routes to Europe. The chapter emphasizes the need for the EU to reassess its migration policies to better address the root causes of migration, such as the ongoing conflict in Sudan.

Chapter 3: The Sudanese Conflict and Its Impact on Europe: Navigating the Complexities of Migration, Human Rights, and Regional Stability by Mekki Elmograbi

The third chapter, authored by Mekki Elmograbi, head of the International Relations Department at the Sudan Center for Red Sea Peace, examines the broader geopolitical and human rights implications of the Sudanese conflict, particularly for Europe. Elmograbi outlines how the conflict has severely strained regional stability, leading to increased refugee flows and challenging Europe’s ability to manage these migrations effectively. He underscores the failure of the EU’s cooperation with Sudan, particularly with the controversial Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia, which has been accused of gross human rights violations, including trafficking and exploitation of migrants.
Elmograbi provides a critical evaluation of the EU’s Khartoum Process, an initiative launched in 2014 to manage migration flows from Africa. He highlights the shortcomings of this initiative, noting that while it aimed to combat human trafficking and reduce illegal migration, it has failed to address the deeper systemic issues driving migration, such as Sudan’s internal conflict and the RSF’s role in border management. Elmograbi calls for a rethinking of the EU’s migration governance strategies, proposing solutions that include legal migration channels, enhanced refugee protection, and greater investment in peace-building efforts in Sudan and the surrounding region.

Key Themes and Recommendations

Throughout the report, a common theme emerges: the need for a more comprehensive and humane approach to migration governance. The authors collectively argue that addressing the root causes of migration—namely, conflict, instability, and human rights violations—is essential to reducing refugee flows to Europe. They recommend that the EU and the international community shift from short-term containment strategies to long-term investments in conflict resolution, regional stability, and legal migration channels.
The report also highlights the significant human cost of the conflict, both for those displaced within Sudan and for refugees making dangerous journeys to Europe. It stresses the need for stronger international humanitarian support, as millions of Sudanese continue to face acute food insecurity, displacement, and violence. Additionally, the authors emphasize the importance of holding actors like the RSF accountable for their role in exacerbating the conflict and migration crisis.

Conclusion

“Sudan’s Internal Conflict and Its Migration Impact on Europe” provides an in-depth, multi-faceted analysis of one of the most pressing humanitarian crises of our time. It calls for urgent international action to alleviate the suffering of millions of displaced Sudanese and to address the root causes of migration. Through a combination of humanitarian aid, diplomatic efforts, and a rethinking of migration governance, the report argues that the international community, particularly the EU, can play a crucial role in stabilizing the region and reducing the flow of refugees to Europe. This report serves as both a sobering reminder of the human cost of conflict and a call to action for more effective and humane migration policies.

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