Even if Michel Barnier is a good and honorable man, his career may not be saved by that. Next week, the prime minister must face the truth in a world full of liars, egotists, and deceivers. There will be two legislative showdowns next week and one right before Christmas as the tumultuous discussions on the 2025 budget draw to a close. As early as next Wednesday, the government may collapse. Marine Le Pen is the center of attention. Since finding out that she may be barred from the 2027 presidential election, not just “a possibility,” the Far Right leader has revised her stance. Early in the new year, the judges in her corruption trial will make their decisions. Le Pen has 140 swing votes in the National Assembly, which will determine the survival of the Barnier alliance and the deficit-cutting 2025 budget. At one point, she seemed to choose stability and compromise over anarchy. She now claims that in a censure vote that would leave France without a government or a Christmas budget, she may join the Left alliance, which she despises.
Le Pen targets French leadership
In early 2025, when neither France nor Germany have a functioning government, picture a victorious, bellicose Donald Trump returning to the White House and a jubilant Vladimir Putin trying his luck in Ukraine. A government shutdown would not be required if the 2025 budget was rejected, but it may cause financial market instability for France and the Eurozone as a whole. Barnier’s dismissal after just three months would lead to yet another protracted French government crisis that would not be resolved until June, when fresh legislative elections may be held. Next week, Barnier is probably going to use his unique authority under Article 49.3 of the Constitution. This “joke” must be used by his minority administration to enforce the 2024 final accounts and the 2025 Social Security budget (pensions, health, etc.). There will thus likely be two censure votes on Wednesday and Friday. He accused Le Pen of belonging to a “Paris microcosm” that is solely focused on “political maneuvers,” reversing the far Right’s typical bleating about “the elites.”
The French government at risk as Le Pen prepares to act
Le Pen was hardly the only target of criticism. With a purportedly crucial budget, all parties, including the Macronist Center and the former Gaullists in Barnier’s shaky coalition, have been engaging in self-serving political games. Following a flurry of self-blame on France’s ongoing, significant deficits in September, the political elites have returned to their old mindset. “Les autres” are constantly to blame for the deficit. Nobody is prepared to think about making compromises. This month, the Assembly completely rejected the main budget when the Left made unapproved amendments that imposed additional taxes on wealthy people and businesses. His initial plan, which would have cut the deficit to 5% of GDP next year from 6.1 percent this year, has already been sent directly to the Senate, where he has a center-right and center-left majority. Barnier has made billions of euros in concessions to businesses, retirees, and local governments, which will be incorporated into the final Senate version. The goal of a 5 percent deficit for the next year already seems unrealistic. The first parliamentary leader called to meet with Barnier in a round of crisis-avoidance discussions on Monday was Marine Le Pen. She warned him that if the budget was not altered anymore, she would reprimand the government.
Le Pen’s plan to shake French politics before court ruling
She asserted that neither taxes nor expenditures should lower the buying power of the people. It was unacceptable even to lessen the July state pension freeze. This also applies to the “increase” in power taxes, which reinstates the reductions made in 2022–2023 to lessen the effects of energy inflation. Why, of course, by unlawfully withholding payments to the EU and “reducing immigration.” Overall, Le Pen has renounced her former posture as a stateswoman. Her more conventional style of bold and populist campaigning has returned. The latest terrible news from her trial for embezzling millions of euros from the European Parliament corresponds with the new strategy. Le Pen was aware that she was going to be found guilty, as I have said here. There is ample proof that she hired fictitious parliamentary aides in Strasbourg and Brussels who were employed by her party in France.
Le Pen on the brink of toppling the French government
She wished the court would not have the audacity to prevent Marine Le Pen from running for office or condemn him to jail. She already knows that when the court renders its decision in January or February, an electoral ban is virtually guaranteed according to an anti-corruption statute approved in 2016. The prosecution has requested five years of political suspension, which may occur, and two years in prison, which will not occur. Importantly, the prosecution claims that the prohibition ought to be in effect while appeals are pending.
