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France’s Strategic Agenda in Lebonan Amid Domestic Crisis

On December 13, Emmanuel Macron officially announced the name of France’s new Prime Minister, François Bayreau. Due to a non-confidence vote, Michel Barnier failed to sustain his position as France’s PM, and his government collapsed after only 90 days in office. Many tough challenges are ahead for the Bayreau in stabilizing France’s political system. He should be ready to face the severe budget crisis in France. Additionally, he already knew the risks of failure, suggesting that success was not confirmed. 

Despite all of these crises, France is still trying to regain its influence in the Middle East, especially in Syria and Lebanon. However, the United States should be aware of the involvement of France in various regional stability efforts. For many years, France has maintained its dominance in the Middle East. Now, the nation is no longer Israel’s ally. With time, France lost its influence in different Middle Eastern regions. 

Furthermore, the future of Macron as a French president is uncertain. His presidency is set to end in 2027 but France’s political instability and economic challenges forced him to resign before. His resignation led to a political downfall in France.

Macron’s efforts to strengthen France’s global image

Mr. Macron, with his domestic problems, is looking to enhance his image and strengthen France’s influence on the international stage. France has a long history in the Middle East, which began in the 19th century. The nation maintains a significant impact in the Middle East through military involvement and strategic partnerships. France’s influence remains strongest in Syria and Lebanon. It dominated Lebanon through the Maronite Christian community and Syria through the Alawite sect. Through security cooperation, France recently has strengthened its relationships with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Egypt.  

Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed group, escalated recent conflicts after Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023. Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel have caused mass displacement and casualties. Israel retaliated with targeted strikes against the Hezbollah leadership. Mr. Macron, in response to the escalating conflict, coordinated with President Biden to achieve a ceasefire in Lebanon in November 2023. France’s involvement here clearly indicates its continued strategic interest in the region and the desire to influence peace efforts and secure its role in the future of the Middle East.

France’s strategy to gain political leverage 

France is strategically intervening in the matter to increase its diplomatic clout. The International Criminal Court’s (ICC) arrest warrants for Israeli leaders Netanyahu and Gallant were first used by the French government, under President Macron, as leverage against Israel. If the men entered the territory of an ICC member state, they had to be arrested under these warrants. Hungary objected to the warrants, but Belgium and Spain backed them, and the United States approved a statute against the ICC. Initially, France said it would enforce the warrants if Netanyahu came, but this sounded more like a ploy to grab power. Pushing Israel to permit France to mediate peace negotiations with Lebanon was the true objective. 

France prioritizes national interests over international law

Mr. Netanyahu might be exempt as a Cabinet minister, according to Mr. Macron’s recent remarks that he might put French interests ahead of international law. Following Netanyahu’s refusal to allow France to monitor a ceasefire deal, France turned its attention to using the ICC arrest warrant to restore control over its former colony of Lebanon. The political climate in France has grown increasingly divisive at home, and Mr. Macron has frequently made snap decisions. 

He makes divergent statements and pledges more than he can fulfill, which damages his relationships with allies when he finally backs down. Despite mounting internal difficulties, this circumstance underlines France’s wish to regain part of its colonial dominance. It also prompts worries that the United States would be tempted to back France’s post-colonial aspirations, which might go counter to American duties and interests. 

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