Emmanuel Macron and his party did not win the European Parliament election. After this defeat he called a quick election in order to make things clear for himself. But this strategy of Macron did not work as he expected. The election campaign ended without any final conclusion. No majority party won that caused more confusion. Furthermore, the result of this election campaign is surprising in France’s history because only a few won and many parties lost.
It is also surprising that the National Rally( RN) lost this time. This party got the most votes a few weeks ago in the European election. RN got more seats and is now the largest party in the National Assembly, but it fell short of what people thought it would achieve. In the second round, many voters united against RN, switching their votes from the center to the left, and from the right to the center. So, this election campaign made the French citizens clear that RN were not suitable to lead and hold the government authorities.
Experts had thought the French voting system couldn’t stop the far-right anymore, but this election showed it still can. At this time, the strongest political force in France is far-right. Despite this power this party can not do anything without support from other parties. It is also surprising to note that the far-right has no allies.
Macron who called this snap election also lost the election campaign. His party lost about 100 seats , the biggest loss in France’s history. Before the election campaign, his group Ensemble had a strong position but now left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), beat them and got more seats.
Macron will likely have to choose a new prime minister from the left. However, the NFP is still about 100 seats short of having a clear majority. The NFP is also a loose group with many disagreements. Their leader, Jean-Luc Melenchon of France Unbowed, mostly wants to stir up public debate and set himself up to run against Marine Le Pen of RN in the 2027 presidential election. This means he might not want a left-wing government led by someone else to do well.
For Melenchon to gain, the NFP would need to carry out its entire program, but that’s not possible without a clear majority. Also, the next government, no matter who runs it, will have to deal with the European Commission, which recently started an “excessive deficit procedure” against France.
The New Popular Front (NFP) won’t break apart soon. Additionally the Socialists and Greens got criticism just because they made party with Melenchon. Despite this criticism their teaming up worked out in the election. They won 40 seats while France unbowed and did not win any new seat. This reminds me of how President Mitterrand worked with the Communists in 1981 to weaken them later.
Looking into the future, a small government will lead for about a year until mid-2025. The reason behind this lead is that the President can’t dissolve the National Assembly earlier. At this time, Macron also doesn’t have any support so the future of France is uncertain. Personalities of political leaders will matter more than usual labels like “left,” “right,” or “center.” Some politicians will focus on stability and compromise, while others will aim to defeat their opponents.
So, the coming year will be very confusing for France’s future and also in politics. Also the French economy would be affected. But for the new government it is really important to note how to manage the budget and make France’s economy stable.
The new assembly might change the process of voting. Right now, the political system works well for two main parties, right and left. But the recent election snap shows that France has 3 main groups: left, right and center.
To fix this, we should switch to proportional representation. This means each party gets seats based on how many votes they get. After the election, parties like the Socialists wouldn’t have to join with France Unbowed just to win seats. They could team up with others, like Macron’s party, later on in parliament.
France is the nation whose political landscape focuses more on conflict rather than cooperation. While other European countries focus on cooperation.
Will this election campaign change the French political landscape? Or things remain the same? If the system doesn’t change then RN could wait to take advantage of the government’s weaknesses, and eventually win big.
