President Emmanuel Macron chose Francois Bayrou as France’s new prime minister. He may face both opportunities and challenges during his service time. In the 1990s he served as the education minister of France. At that time he presented a plan to enhance subsidies for private schools and faced a lot of criticism. He efficiently managed this opposition and stayed in office. Now Macron selected him as France’s 4th prime minister that year. As the PM he has to face many difficulties due to a divided parliament. This makes it hard for him to pass new laws, especially those related to the 2025 budget.
Bayrou needed support from parliament to form the new government. He also faced strong opposition from far-right and far-left parties. France’s political landscape is not stable, and the removal of Michel Barnier from the prime minister’s seat is evidence of it.
Many people in France see Bayrou as a new hope. He is the leader who may bring people together on a single platform to overcome the economic crisis. While many think that his return to French politics means more of the same. His ability to efficiently manage France’s rising debt will be the first step towards his success.
Rising debt issues in France
Bayrou said that France’s debt is not only a financial issue but also a moral one. He expresses great support and a willingness to accept Barnier’s warning about the complicated situation. It is important for the new prime minister to pay attention to keeping peace with unions, lawmakers, and powerful groups.
One of the great tasks is to maintain peace in the National Assembly. Nowadays it is split into three opposing factions. The major reason for Barnier’s downfall was disagreement over the 2025 budget bill. Bayrou may face the same results if he utilizes special constitutional powers to pass the budget without a vote.
Many experts, such as Raphael Brun-Aguerre from JP Morgan, stated that the nation’s fiscal costs increase to fulfill the demand of opposition parties. This could limit the government’s ability to lessen debt next year. This could lead to a situation where unity may resolve conflict but make the nation financially unstable for a longer period.
From the Communists to the center-right Republicans, President Macron has been trying to bring all political parties together. He urged all Republicans to unite, but he turned down the Socialist Party’s proposal to name one of their members prime minister. Macron was careful not to jeopardize significant measures that sought to fortify the pension system and liberalize the economy.
But there is still a lot of resistance to his 2023 pension overhaul. The far-right National Rally’s head, Jordan Bardella, has stated that their “red lines,” which include indexing pensions to inflation until 2025, have not been altered. This demonstrates that even if Macron makes an effort to advance his reforms, the far-right and other opponents will persist in opposing them, particularly with regard to adjustments to pension laws. The continuous opposition draws attention to France’s disagreements on social and economic policies.
Rising support for Marine Le Pen
According to recent polls, 35–38% of voters support Marine Le Pen in the 2027 presidential election, indicating that she is garnering significant support. She is well-positioned as a far-right leader as a result. If the next government is led by François Bayrou, he will have a lot of obstacles to overcome. The administration must prevent trade union protests while lowering the budget deficit, which is expected to reach 6.1% in 2024. In order to help Ukraine and find answers for the faltering industrial sector, more money must be spent on the military.
In order to lower the deficit, former negotiator Michel Barnier has suggested halting pension increases and increasing taxes on the rich and big businesses. But when his government fell, these plans were shelved. The French parliament was harshly attacked by former finance minister Bruno Le Maire for failing to rein in spending, claiming that it had become disconnected from the reality of the economy.
