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A shift in leadership Examining France's political landscape under Barnier
Credit: Sergey Dolzhenko/EPA

This summer was very important for French politics. Far-right parties get strong support from the election of the European Parliament. At the same time, parliamentary elections helped left-leaning parties gain power. August was a crucial month for political leaders and France’s politics. There were tough talks to create a new government. Now there is a feeling of stability in France’s political landscape. The new government of France is under the leadership of Minister Michel Barnier. He will probably keep following ‌Macron-designed foreign policies. 

It is expected that Barnier’s government will support Ukraine against Russia and also pay attention to the Israel-Hamas war. These foreign problems likely won’t cause immediate instability; any issues are more likely to come from what happens in France. However, a far-right party may take advantage of the situation, especially if the Russia-Ukraine war gets worse. Barnier is a traditional conservative personality. He agrees with Macron on foreign policy and values France’s independence. He sees the European Union as helping French interests.

Many past leaders work again on the foreign policy team. For the post of armed forces minister, Macron and Barnier chose Sebastien Lecornu, which shows strong favoritism towards Ukraine. Jean-Noel Barrot is the new foreign minister, and Aurelien Lechevallier, Barrot’s chief of staff, has worked closely with Macron. 

Benjamin Haddad, the new minister for European affairs, agrees with similar ideas and thinks Europe should do more. This is especially true as the US is thinking about how it can help Europe.

One of the main priorities for the new build-up team is to support Ukraine. Because there were many promises made at the 2024 Paris conference. It is the responsibility of France to provide military aid. Some of the assistance has already gone over €1.3 billion. Furthermore, France also keeps sending weapons and training to the Ukraine forces.  

Lecornu’s leadership will help focus on Ukraine’s needs. Training for Mirage 2000 pilots is starting, with plans to certify 26 pilots soon and build a brigade of 4,500 Ukrainian soldiers.

In the past year, France’s support for Ukraine has been strong enough and has taken a clear stance against Russian attacks. Macron believes in “strategic ambiguity.” It means maintaining patience and being flexible in every situation. According to France, setting strict rules is not the solution to the problem. The nation wants its allies to follow in creative ways to challenge Russia. For example, France has allowed Ukraine to hit Russian targets beyond the frontlines, directly affecting Russian forces. However, France should use its long-range missiles with careful thinking. 

France also needs to improve its image on a global level and should focus on its problems. For this purpose, Macron should think about peace talks. The upcoming conference for Ukraine will discuss the security needs of this nation.

France can work with the new Labor government in the UK and connect with Central and Eastern Europe. Experienced leaders like Barrot, Haddad, and Stéphane Séjourné will be key in these efforts.

In the case of the Middle East, France has a clear stance. President Macron shows great support to Israel, especially after the 7 October attack. At the same time, he criticized Israel for its harsh and aggressive behavior in response. 

The conversation might be in another direction if ‌left-wing governments were the winners. This government opposes Israel for genocide in Gaza and has also promised to recognize Palestinian statehood. However, Barnier avoids taking sides in any region. The more tension in France is due to its domestic matters and complicated relationship with the Muslim community. 

Although France lacks influence in Gaza, it plays a significant role in Lebanon. The country maintains strong ties with Lebanese political groups, including Hezbollah. French troops in Lebanon reflect its importance, but efforts to help after the Beirut explosion in 2020 were unsuccessful.

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